Euro and the new world order

I must claim credit for coining the portmanteau, "Europower", and I must, at the same time, admit that I did not have the faintest idea what I meant by it when I came out with that coinage! What had happened was that the project editor of this publication, my senior colleague, Chetan Chadha, had come over to my room in our New Delhi office to discuss the title of this new publication, which was initially intended to focus on the emergence of euro as the common currency of most European Union states. It was after tossing several phrases that I suddenly came out with my coinage, “Europower" — without really having any idea of what "power" the euro had or would eventually have when it came into currency two years hence, that is, in the year 2002.

This, however, is only one aspect of the euro's power. There is the other aspect which will, through the next decade or two, make the euro even more formidable than what it looks today. In India, most of us tend to look at the euro merely as a currency, forgetting that it is a lot more than that — the euro is a currency of Europe striving to, be united not only economically but also politically and militarily. Some people are already calling this Europe of the future as "the United State of Europe." Once we visualise today's European Union of several independent nation states coalescing into a single federal state, we can see before our eyes a new global power emerging in the world. The emergence of this new power will compulsorily trigger a new world order in which the new Europe and the euro will challenge the United States of America and the dollar, with Japan and the yen playing a third fiddle in world affairs. This is what the term Europower means and this is exactly what this publication seeks to explain.

Nevertheless, I have come to realise the power of the euro only now after travelling through nearly the whole of Europe during the last three months. This is the first time in the history of nation states anywhere in the world that eleven independent nations have voluntarily agreed to surrender their sovereign right to issue and manage their own currencies and, in fact, the entire gamut of their monetary policies.

They are only eleven states at the moment, but no one should be surprised if their number rises to 18 or even 20 by the time the euro comes into circulation. The United Kingdom is still hesitant to join the common currency, but it cannot delay a decision for long. Sooner or later, it will have to fall in line because opting out of the euro will only mean opting out of the European mainstream, which it can ill afford to do — whether it is the Labour or the Tories who rule Britain.

As I am writing this, I have before me this afternoon's Evening Standard and from one of its inside pages is screaming a headline which says: "64% of business chief back single currency". But the business chiefs apart, even most of Britain's politicians, to whichever of the two big parties they may belong, realise the inevitability of the UK joining the euro, though because of their political compulsions they may not admit that publicly. This is because they all know that staying out of the euro would mean for the UK not only its economic isolation from the rest of the Europe but its political isolation too. And they all know it well that however strong a currency the sterling may be today and however well economically Britain may be doing today, it cannot keep ploughing a lone furrow for too long. Among the other EU members, Sweden and Denmark have also chosen to stay out of the eurozone, though even they will find it difficult to do that for very long.

Anyway, even if they were to stay out of the European Monetary Union (EMU), there are many others who will come in. About a dozen other states on the eastern borders of the European Union are anxiously waiting to be admitted to the Union and to join its euro core group. Already, there are talks that several central European countries, such as the Czech Republic and Hungary, might adopt the euro even before they join the European Union, as they are also close to satisfying the Maastricht criteria for convergence with the Euro-II.

All this means that the euro is bound to attract an increasing number of European, countries into its fold and, as it does that, its

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