Only astrologers can be cocksure in times like these but this time even they seem to be baffled out of their wits. Otherwise, this is the sort of time when they are at their keenest to forecast the rise and fall of leaders. Maybe, this is so because their gut feelings are at odds with their star charts.

Whether or not this is true of astrologers, it certainly is true of most political pundits in Delhi these days. Everybody's gut feeling is at variance with his calculations. You ask anybody what is likely to happen and he will say his gut feeling is that the government will survive. You ask him how and he will say he does not know.

This is simply because nobody is sure how Vajpayee or Sonia Gandhi will finally be able to fit all these round pegs in square holes. The three most difficult to fit are AIADMK, the DMK and the TMC. What will Karunanidhi and Moopanar do when Jayalalitha does finally cast her lot with this proposed combination of Sonia, Surjeet, Laloo and Mulayam? It is impossible for all the three of them to be fitted in the same hole. Karunanidhi and Moopanar may agree to bring down the Vajpayee coalition, but not to see it replaced by one which has Jayalalitha as partner because that will amount to their annihilation.

Well, Surjeet, the CPM sage who is never at a loss to come out with a trick to beat all tricks, has proposed a solution to this weird problem. His solution is to ask all the three of them to support a Congress-led coalition from outside so all the three can be on the same side without being in the same coalition. It is really neat, isn't it? Surjeet is really a sage for such times. Only he can twist Karl Marx's arms like this. This is clever of him but this may still not be acceptable to Karunanidhi because he knows that eventually this will be a ruinous arrangement for him. Jayalalitha will not be content with merely ousting the BJP coalition and installing the Congress in its place. She will also want to use such a government to finally destroy the DMK in Tamil Nadu. Karunanidhi knows that at the end, when the next election comes, the Congress will ally with Jayalaliths which will leave him with no option but to ally with the BJP. That is in case he is compelled to go out of the third front because of its dalliance with the Congress and the AIADMK .

So, the situation still remains tricky for a Congress-led alternative. It is specially tricky because deep in her heart Sonia Gandhi must hate to be forced to head a government with allies like the AIADMK, the CPM and the likes of Laloo and Mulayam. The fact is that the Congress wants to somehow wriggle out of this unhappy predicament of forming a government with the support of these political adventurers. But it is not able to find a way out for fear that if it shows any reluctance to form an alternative government, it might be blamed for being soft on the BJP. So, the Congress is feeling trapped in a situation which is not of its making. There is, therefore, still a chance that Vajpayee may survive. It is a thin chance but a chance it is. Which way the chance turns depends upon which side Karunanidhi, Kanshi Rain and Chautala choose to support with their 15 members and whether Moopanar's three members choose to vote or to abstain.